Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3530 · FSM → DFW
departs 5:15 PM CT · arrives 6:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 41%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
Weather at each end
FSM (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.