Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 3530 · FSM → DFW
departs 5:15 PM CT · arrives 6:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±16 pts
−15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
28%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
28%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at FSM that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
FSM usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
FSM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.82 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.