Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
MQ 3530 · FSM → DFW
departs 5:15 PM CT · arrives 6:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 56%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±9 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at DFW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSM
Weather at each end
FSM (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 10,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.