Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
MQ 3530 · FSM → DFW
departs 5:15 PM CT · arrives 6:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 41%
Thu 10/1 63%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
FSM (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.