Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3566
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
MQ 3566 · TLH → MIA
departs 5:31 PM ET · arrives 6:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TLH that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
TLH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TLH (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.85 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.