Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3580
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3580 · DFW → HSV
departs 1:12 PM CT · arrives 3:07 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3 45%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at HSV that day
↑
1pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
HSV usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.03 in
HSV (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.