Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3580
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3580 · HSV → DFW
departs 3:37 PM CT · arrives 5:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Sat 10/3 50%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at HSV that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HSV (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.86 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.