Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3630 · LIT → DCA
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 9:29 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 6%
Thu 10/8 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from LIT are usually not late
Weather at each end
LIT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.