Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3644 · DFW → LRD
departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 10:01 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at LRD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LRD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LRD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LRD?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at LRD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Arrivals into LRD at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
LRD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.