Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3780
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3780 · AMA → DFW
departs 7:02 AM CT · arrives 8:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AMA
Weather at each end
AMA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.