Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3783 · ORD → TYS
departs 2:59 PM CT · arrives 5:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at TYS that day
↑
2pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
TYS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TYS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip 1.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.