Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3783 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 3783 · ORD → TYS

departs 3:13 PM CT · arrives 6:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into TYS at that hour are often late

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,833 ft Visibility6.33333 mi Precip0.17 in

TYS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3783 · ORD → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?