Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3783 · ORD → TYS
departs 3:13 PM CT · arrives 6:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS
↓
TYS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.81 in
TYS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.