Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3817
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
MQ 3817 · ORD → SYR
departs 8:59 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SYR?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
ORD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SYR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.