Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3817
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
MQ 3817 · ORD → SYR
departs 8:59 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SYR?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SYR at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SYR (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.