Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3823 · TPA → BNA
departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 5:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sat 10/3 35%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
4pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.