Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3823 · TPA → BNA
departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 5:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±6 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
4pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.