Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 3823 · TPA → BNA
departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 5:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 50%
Sat 10/3 34%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
4pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.