Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3827 LANDED 9:37 AM ET, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

MQ 3827 · MIA → EYW

took off 9:00 AM ET · landed 9:37 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW

↓ Arrivals into EYW at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

EYW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3827 · MIA → EYW

Odds over time