MQ 3837 · MIA → TLH

departs 11:57 AM ET · arrives 1:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TLH?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at TLH that day

↑ 11am departures from MIA are often late

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into TLH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

TLH (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3837 · MIA → TLH

Odds over time

How late will it get to TLH?