MQ 3867 · CHS → MIA

departs 6:54 PM ET · arrives 8:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at CHS that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ CHS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.20 in

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3867 · CHS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?