Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3877
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3877 · GNV → MIA
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:16 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
5.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave GNV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from GNV are usually not late
Weather at each end
GNV (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.