Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3930
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3930 · LCH → DFW
departs 6:02 AM CT · arrives 7:37 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LCH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LCH that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from LCH are usually not late
Weather at each end
LCH (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.34 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.