Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3951
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3951 · GPT → DFW
departs 5:14 AM CT · arrives 7:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/3 27%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave GPT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.4 in of rain forecast at GPT that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from GPT are usually not late
Weather at each end
GPT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.45 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.