MQ 3966 · MIA → TLH

departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 4:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TLH?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at TLH that day

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TLH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

TLH (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3966 · MIA → TLH

Odds over time

How late will it get to TLH?