Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3976
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3976 · DCA → ATL
departs 8:20 AM ET · arrives 10:27 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.52 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 2.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.