tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4009 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

MQ 4009 · ILM → ORD

departs 3:20 PM ET · arrives 4:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 117h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Sunday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
30% chance · ±7 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 5.7d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to ORD?

  1. On time or early
    70%
  2. 15–30 min late
    12%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    10%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    5%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.