Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4057
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4057 · CLE → MIA
departs 7:08 PM ET · arrives 10:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 32%
Wed 10/7 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.