Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4066 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

MQ 4066 · CAE → DFW

departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 8:50 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CAE that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from CAE are usually not late

Weather at each end

CAE (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.47 in

DFW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4066 · CAE → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?