MQ 4078 · MIA → TLH

departs 6:11 PM ET · arrives 7:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TLH?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at TLH that day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ TLH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TLH (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4078 · MIA → TLH

Odds over time

How late will it get to TLH?