Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4095
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
MQ 4095 · AUS → DFW
departs 1:56 PM CT · arrives 3:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.