Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4095
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 4095 · AUS → DFW
departs 1:56 PM CT · arrives 3:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.