Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4112
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4112 · ORD → HPN
departs 1:44 PM CT · arrives 5:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 21%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at HPN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HPN?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at HPN that day
↑
1pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
ORD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HPN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.