Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4112
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 4112 · ORD → HPN
departs 1:55 PM CT · arrives 5:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 21%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at HPN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HPN?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HPN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.