MQ 4122 · TPA → MIA

departs 7:50 PM ET · arrives 9:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TPA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

MIA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4122 · TPA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?