Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4131
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4131 · DCA → BUF
departs 10:40 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.52 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.