MQ 4174 · SRQ → CLT

took off 6:58 PM ET · expected to land 8:16 PM ET (scheduled 5:42 PM ET → 7:51 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

LIVE

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
78%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4174 · SRQ → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?