Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4232 IN THE AIR (OFF 8:59 AM ET, ETA 9:41 AM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

MQ 4232 · DCA → RDU

took off 8:59 AM ET · expected to land 9:41 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RDU that day

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.18 in

RDU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4232 · DCA → RDU

Odds over time