Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5017 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5017 · DCA → PVD

departs 10:28 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PVD?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ PVD usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.52 in

PVD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5017 · DCA → PVD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVD?