OH 5133 · DCA → ILM

departs 5:52 PM ET · arrives 7:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.20 in

ILM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.96 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5133 · DCA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?