OH 5133 · ILM → DCA

departs 7:52 PM ET · arrives 9:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.20 in

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5133 · ILM → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?