OH 5139 · PNS → DCA

departs 5:12 PM CT · arrives 8:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain forecast at PNS that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ PNS usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PNS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip4.19 in

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5139 · PNS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?