OH 5140 · DCA → GSO

departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 7:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSO?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at GSO that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.23 in

GSO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5140 · DCA → GSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSO?