OH 5148 · DCA → MGM

departs 5:16 PM ET · arrives 6:37 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at MGM more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MGM?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MGM that day

↓ MGM usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.14 in

MGM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.88 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5148 · DCA → MGM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MGM?