OH 5154 · IAD → CLT

departs 1:27 PM ET · arrives 2:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at IAD that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 1pm departures from IAD are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.05 in

CLT (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5154 · IAD → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?