Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5200 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

OH 5200 · DCA → GRR

departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 1:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GRR?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.36 in

GRR (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5200 · DCA → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?