Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5224 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5224 · DCA → ICT

departs 1:22 PM ET · arrives 3:28 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ICT?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ICT

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.34 in

ICT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5224 · DCA → ICT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICT?