OH 5226 · DCA → BHM

departs 3:16 PM ET · arrives 4:36 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BHM?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.13 in

BHM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.65 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5226 · DCA → BHM

Odds over time

How late will it get to BHM?