Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5230 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

OH 5230 · DCA → BTR

departs 8:31 PM ET · arrives 10:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at BTR more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±5 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BTR?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BTR that day

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.36 in

BTR (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.85 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5230 · DCA → BTR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTR?