OH 5233 · CLT → XNA

departs 4:32 PM ET · arrives 5:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at CLT that day

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.22 in

XNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5233 · CLT → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?